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《大行》招商證券升Alphabet(GOOGL.US)目標價至460美元 AI能力鞏固消費端入口護城河
招商證券國際發表報告指,谷歌在本周二(19日)的Google I/O大會上,全面展示了其向AI智能體時代的轉型,包括新的基礎模型、全天候運行的消費者代理、新的創意「世界模型」,以及對搜索的重大升級。該行認為,大型科技平台憑借其深厚護城河與用戶信任,最有優勢把握機遇,並推出Agentic AI相關能力。該行稱,憑借全球規模與用戶信任,谷歌在消費級AI領域仍具備...
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《大行》招商證券升Alphabet(GOOGL.US)目標價至460美元 AI能力鞏固消費端入口護城河
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招商證券國際發表報告指,谷歌在本周二(19日)的Google I/O大會上,全面展示了其向AI智能體時代的轉型,包括新的基礎模型、全天候運行的消費者代理、新的創意「世界模型」,以及對搜索的重大升級。該行認為,大型科技平台憑借其深厚護城河與用戶信任,最有優勢把握機遇,並推出Agentic AI相關能力。

該行稱,憑借全球規模與用戶信任,谷歌在消費級AI領域仍具備顯著優勢;AI能力的持續強化進一步鞏固其作為核心流量入口的護城河。其新增AI訂閱檔位,以吸引更多付費用戶。新檔位填補了20美元「專業消費者」與200美元企業級用戶之間的空白,並捆綁YouTubePremium以提升感知價值,該行預計目標客群將為注重成本的中小開發團隊。

基於廣告與雲業務的可持續增長,以及Waymo、TPU等潛在催化劑,該行認為谷歌的風險回報仍具備吸引力。受益於廣告收入強勁表現,該行小幅上調收入預測,預計25至27財年收入及經營利潤複合年增速為19%及27%。以現金流折現率計,該行上調谷歌母企Alphabet(GOOGL.US)      目標價至460美元,對應預測26及27財年非GAAP市盈率32倍及26倍,評級「增持」。公司現交易於預測27財年市盈率22倍,與同行(蘋果32倍、微軟24倍)相比,估值折讓逐漸收窄,得益於全棧AI基礎設施佈局(尤其是TPU)成為近期關鍵推升因素。(da/u)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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