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《大行》大摩:習特會驅動A股情緒改善 偏好A股多於H股 予明年次季恒指目標28,400點
摩根士丹利發表報告,指隨著習特會啟動以及第一季業績遜於預期的情況較第四季減少,摩根士丹利A股市場情緒指標(MSASI)持續改善,成交額亦見上升。該行認為,在盈利改善、在全球上游供應鏈的主導地位不斷增強,以及美元兌人民幣走強的推動下,2027年第二季存在溫和上行空間。該行維持對在岸A股相對於離岸市場(包括H股)的「增持」看法。隨著MSCI中國A股指數2026年...
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《大行》大摩:習特會驅動A股情緒改善 偏好A股多於H股 予明年次季恒指目標28,400點
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摩根士丹利發表報告,指隨著習特會啟動以及第一季業績遜於預期的情況較第四季減少,摩根士丹利A股市場情緒指標(MSASI)持續改善,成交額亦見上升。該行認為,在盈利改善、在全球上游供應鏈的主導地位不斷增強,以及美元兌人民幣走強的推動下,2027年第二季存在溫和上行空間。該行維持對在岸A股相對於離岸市場(包括H股)的「增持」看法。

隨著MSCI中國A股指數2026年第一季盈利出現初步改善跡象,該行認為盈利前景將從下半年開始溫和好轉,受以下因素支持,包括(1)在人工智能及能源資本開支週期加速下出口增長更強勁;(2)人民幣兌美元升值;以及(3)隨著4月更嚴格的政府監管出台後激烈價格競爭開始正常化,大型平台公司的盈利壓力見頂。

該行補充,在盈利增長改善、美中貿易休戰期延長,以及中國企業在全球高端供應鏈中佔比不斷提升的推動下,估值亦可能出現輕微重估。

該行設定2027年第二季新目標價:恒生指數28,400點、MSCI中國指數91點、國企指數9,900點、滬深300指數5,400點,分別意味著8%、12%、11%及11%的上行空間。

然而,大摩表示,短期波動可能持續,源於(1)第一季盈利可能再度遜於預期;(2)香港大型新股在7月解禁;(3)若聯儲局減息預期消退或逆轉,流動性存在不確定性;以及(4)能源價格高企下的全球增長風險。因此,該行預期市場動態將在夏季左右或之後變得更加清晰平穩。

大摩繼續偏好A股多於離岸市場,反映A股對上游製造業/硬科技、首次公開募股驅動的本地參與以及國家隊支持有更強的敞口。該行強烈看好上游資產密集型板塊(原材料、工業、能源),以及科技本地化主題(半導體)。該行對金融股及收益型股份維持適度配置。該行繼續對房地產及必需消費品持「減持」看法。(da/a)

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