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《預測》券商料騰訊(00700.HK)首季經調整淨利潤升11% 聚焦AI業務進展及投入策略
騰訊(00700.HK)將於下周三(13日)公布今年首季度業績,受惠於視頻號新增廣告載入、持續AI改進帶來效益及雲業務增長,扺銷季內無重大新遊戲發行、部份人工智能投資及遊戲業務增長在高基數下放緩影響,本網綜合10間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤料介乎667.87億至692.19億元人民幣,對比去年同期613.29億元人民幣,按年上升8....
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《預測》券商料騰訊(00700.HK)首季經調整淨利潤升11% 聚焦AI業務進展及投入策略
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騰訊(00700.HK)  +5.200 (+1.112%)    Short selling $1.13B; Ratio 10.030%   將於下周三(13日)公布今年首季度業績,受惠於視頻號新增廣告載入、持續AI改進帶來效益及雲業務增長,扺銷季內無重大新遊戲發行、部份人工智能投資及遊戲業務增長在高基數下放緩影響,本網綜合10間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤料介乎667.87億至692.19億元人民幣,對比去年同期613.29億元人民幣,按年上升8.9%至12.9%,中位數677.98億元人民幣,按年增加10.5%。

綜合5間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季淨利潤料介乎561.4億至584.97億元人民幣,對比去年同期478.21億元人民幣,按年增加17.4%至22.3%,中位數564.96億元人民幣,按年增加18.1%。本網綜合10間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季收入料介乎1,979.1億至2,014億元人民幣,對比去年同期1,800.22億元人民幣,按年增加9.9%至11.9%,中位數1,996.26億元人民幣,按年增加10.9%。

市場將關注騰訊管理層對AI業務進展投資投入(可能暫時對營業利潤率造成壓力)、「混元」模型的競爭力、微信推出AI助手(微信如何與AI適配),雲端需求(騰訊雲自2月起逐步減少折扣,並在3月及4月對大模型API服務及AI基礎設施宣布漲價)、即將推出的新遊戲,以及廣告市場、廣告負載更新及微信AI搜尋的用戶接受度。投資者亦將關注騰訊股份回購及股東回報的最新指引。

【AI投資料影響整體利潤率】

花旗預測騰訊首季總收入將年增長9.9%至1,979億元人民幣,非國際財務報告準則淨利潤將年增加9.7%至672億元人民幣。該行預測線上遊戲總收入將年增長11.7%至664億元人民幣,其中本土遊戲與國際遊戲分別按年增長10%及16%。該行預測線上廣告收入按年增長17%至373億元人民幣,金融服務與企業服務收入按年增長8.5%至596億元人民幣,其中雲收入按年增25%至125億元人民幣,金融科技收入按年增4.8%至470億元人民幣,其中雲業務收入按年增長25%至125億人民幣。預估毛利及經營溢利分別年增長10.7%及0.4%。該行表示,預期騰訊季度營收將保持穩健增長,受惠於春節季節性因素帶動的遊戲收入韌性、經典遊戲系列穩定表現,以及虛擬貨幣廣告投放量增加和eCPM提升帶動的廣告收入穩定增長。受研發、一般行政及行銷推廣方面與人工智能相關支出增加影響,經營利潤增長將放緩。

摩根士丹利預測,騰訊首季收入與非國際財務報告準則經營溢利將分別按年增長9.8%及7.1%,至1,977億及742億元人民幣。遊戲業務在高基數下維持正常化成長,抵銷廣告及金融科技與企業服務業務的加速增長;人工智能投資已開始對利潤率造成壓力,包括中國新年期間的元寶紅包活動。該行預期本土及國際遊戲收入將分別按年增長8%及15%,增長放緩主因在於高基數效應、本地春節時間較晚,以及海外市場因遊戲工作室併購與Supercell延遲發布周期所帶來的順風效應逐漸消退。線上廣告服務收入料按年增長19%,主要受惠廣告技術持續帶來效益、影片帳戶廣告量增加,以及電子商務貢獻度降低。受惠於需求強勁及定價環境改善,雲業務收入增長加速,商業服務按年增長有望從2025年第四季的22%提升至25%,今年1月至2月期間消費逐步復甦,應能帶動商業支付業務增長。

【廣告收入增長料跑贏同業】

瑞銀預測騰訊首季度營收入按年升11%至2,006億元人民幣,非國際財務報告準則純利按年增長13%至692億元人民幣。其中本土遊戲收入料按年增長13%,主要受《王者榮耀》、《和平精英》及《三角洲部隊》等常青遊戲表現強勁所驅動。國際遊戲收入料按年增長16%,主因Supercell增長放緩,且隨著Kuro於2024年完成整合,收入基數趨於正常化。廣告方面,預期收入將按年增長18%,表現顯著優於同業,主要受惠視頻號與搜尋廣告的庫存及廣告負載增加、AIM+帶動的廣告主基礎擴張,以及AI驅動廣告技術升級所提升的eCPM。金融科技及企業服務方面,預計收入料按年增長10%,雲業務加速增長抵銷線下消費的宏觀不確定性。該行料騰訊季度毛利率按年升1.6個百分點至57.5%,受惠於利潤率較高的自研遊戲、視頻號及電商技術費佔比提升。受增加的AI投資及元寶的紅包活動影響,非國際財務報告準則經營溢利料按年增長11%至766億元人民幣。瑞銀預期市場將關注騰訊人工智能策略與利潤率、線上遊戲及廣告業務展望。

--------------------------------------------------------

本網綜合10間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤料介乎667.87億至692.19億元人民幣,對比去年同期613.29億元人民幣,按年上升8.9%至12.9%,中位數677.98億元人民幣,按年增加10.5%。

券商│今年首季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
野村│692.19億元│+12.9%
瑞銀│692億元│+12.8%
摩根士丹利│687.45億元│+12.1%
華源證券│685億元│+11.7%
大和│683.39億元│+11.4%
中金│672.56億元│+9.7%
花旗│672.21億元│+9.6%
中銀國際│668.94億元│+9.1%
招銀國際│668億元│+8.9%
高盛│667.87億元│+8.9%
按騰訊2025年首季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤613.29億元人民幣計算。
--------------------------------------------------------

綜合5間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季淨利潤料介乎561.4億至584.97億元人民幣,對比去年同期478.21億元人民幣,按年增加17.4%至22.3%,中位數564.96億元人民幣,按年增加18.1%。

券商│今年首季淨利潤預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│584.97億元│+22.3%
中銀國際│569.95億元│+19.2%
花旗│564.96億元│+18.1%
中金│561.85億元│+17.5%
高盛│561.4億元│+17.4%
按騰訊2025年首季淨利潤478.21億元人民幣計算。
--------------------------------------------------------

本網綜合10間券商預測,騰訊2026年首季收入料介乎1,979.1億至2,014億元人民幣,對比去年同期1,800.22億元人民幣,按年增加9.9%至11.9%,中位數1,996.26億元人民幣,按年增加10.9%。

券商│今年首季收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅
華源證券│2,014億元│+11.9%
大和│2,013.92億元│+11.9%
瑞銀│2,005.95億元│+11.4%
中金│2,004.7億元│+11.4%
摩根士丹利│1,997.18億元│+10.9%
野村│1,995.34億元│+10.8%
中銀國際│1,994.76億元│+10.8%
高盛│1,993.21億元│+10.7%
招銀國際│1,984億元│+10.2%
花旗│1,979.1億元│+9.9%
按騰訊2025年首季收入1,800.22億元人民幣計算。

(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-04 16:25.)

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