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《大行》摩通:中國互聯網股經歷一輪重新定價 市場對騰訊(00700.HK)估值存在四大誤判
摩通發表報告指,自2025年第四季業績期結束以來的六週內,中國互聯網股經歷了一輪重新定價,有別於2026年1月期間以AI敘事為主導的漲勢。目前盈利修正已成為股價走勢的主導因素,AI資本支出受到懲罰而非獎勵,而買方機構已普遍採用「真實本益比加上獲利下限加上過期催化劑」的框架來決定持倉規模。在此市場環境下,該行更新了行業觀點,並將騰訊(00700.HK)列為首選...
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《大行》摩通:中國互聯網股經歷一輪重新定價 市場對騰訊(00700.HK)估值存在四大誤判
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摩通發表報告指,自2025年第四季業績期結束以來的六週內,中國互聯網股經歷了一輪重新定價,有別於2026年1月期間以AI敘事為主導的漲勢。目前盈利修正已成為股價走勢的主導因素,AI資本支出受到懲罰而非獎勵,而買方機構已普遍採用「真實本益比加上獲利下限加上過期催化劑」的框架來決定持倉規模。在此市場環境下,該行更新了行業觀點,並將騰訊(00700.HK)  -1.800 (-0.363%)    Short selling $1.48B; Ratio 16.230%   列為首選股。行業首選股亦包括京東-SW(09618.HK)  -0.200 (-0.168%)    Short selling $239.19M; Ratio 35.573%   、攜程-S(09961.HK)  -1.000 (-0.241%)    Short selling $109.40M; Ratio 18.355%   、百度-SW(09888.HK)  +0.900 (+0.747%)    Short selling $477.94M; Ratio 42.915%   、阿里-W(09988.HK)  +1.400 (+1.074%)    Short selling $1.39B; Ratio 16.756%   及嗶哩哩哩-W(09626.HK)  -3.200 (-1.802%)    Short selling $108.01M; Ratio 24.737%  

摩通指,其信心源自四項篩選標準,包括當前估值倍數是否代表真實的盈利下限;AI支出是否由自有資金支應而非稀釋股權;市場共識盈利預期是否過低;以及未來三至六個月內是否存在已確定的催化劑。而騰訊是唯一通過這四項標準的個股。

摩通認為,市場對騰訊的估值存在四大誤判。其盈利下限是真實存在的,2025財年1,826億人民幣的自由現金流足以輕鬆支撐當前的AI投資框架,而該行對2026年每股盈利增長約8%的預測,已將較高的支出水準納入考量。相較於市場共識的框架,騰訊的AI變現在執行亦跑贏市場預期。

同時,該行亦認為騰訊的遊戲與授權業務的護城河被低估,因為在中國,授權資源而非模型品質才是稀缺資產。另外,微信具備長期潛在價值,而當前市盈率對此幾乎未予估值。

該行對京東和攜程保持建設性的立場,但會更為精挑細選;對美團-W(03690.HK)  -0.650 (-0.782%)    Short selling $990.17M; Ratio 33.280%   維持中性評級;並認為拼多多(PDD.US)      在近期市盈率重置後,風險與回報呈現平衡狀態。(ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-24 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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