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惠譽降美團(03690.HK)信貸評級展望至「負面」 確認「BBB+」評級
惠譽評級將美團-W(03690.HK)的長期發行人主體評級展望自「穩定」調整至「負面」,確認其「BBB+」的發行人主體評級。惠譽同時確認美團的高級無抵押評級及其存續高級美元債券「BBB+」的評級。本次展望調整反映出,受2025年第二季度補貼戰開啟後餐飲外賣領域激烈競爭的影響,美團的盈利能力和自由現金流復甦速度慢於預期。高額補貼支出削弱了短期收益可見度,惠譽目...
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惠譽降美團(03690.HK)信貸評級展望至「負面」 確認「BBB+」評級
Recommend
34
Positive
54
Negative
48
 
 

惠譽評級將美團-W(03690.HK)  -0.400 (-0.455%)    Short selling $714.47M; Ratio 25.508%   的長期發行人主體評級展望自「穩定」調整至「負面」,確認其「BBB+」的發行人主體評級。惠譽同時確認美團的高級無抵押評級及其存續高級美元債券「BBB+」的評級。

本次展望調整反映出,受2025年第二季度補貼戰開啟後餐飲外賣領域激烈競爭的影響,美團的盈利能力和自由現金流復甦速度慢於預期。高額補貼支出削弱了短期收益可見度,惠譽目前預期,在競爭明顯緩和的前提下,美團的自由現金流才會於2027年轉為正值。

評級確認反映出惠譽認為,美團的復甦軌跡仍然完好,只是有所延後。惠譽認為,一旦競爭恢復常態,美團在中國本地服務行業的領先市場地位及其相對於競爭對手的效率優勢,將支撐其復甦。此外,該評級也考量了公司的淨現金頭寸,這為其吸收短期收益壓力提供了靈活性。

惠譽預期,美團的EBITDA和自由現金流復甦步伐將慢於此前的預期,2026年收益仍將承壓,而恢復至正自由現金流的時間可能推遲至2027年,前提是競爭強度明顯緩和。

惠譽認為,補貼已於2025年第三季度見頂,並已出現競爭可能逐步愈加理性的初步跡象。2025年第四季度、2026年第一季度,阿里-W(09988.HK)  +2.600 (+2.116%)    Short selling $1.33B; Ratio 13.415%   和京東-SW(09618.HK)  -0.300 (-0.269%)    Short selling $251.19M; Ratio 36.730%   減少了補貼支出,同時監管機構對餐飲外賣領域激進價格競爭採取了更嚴格的立場。惠譽認為,隨著美團減少對奶茶和咖啡等低客單價訂單的高額補貼,並將重點轉向捍衛更高客單價訂單的市場份額,補貼帶來的影響也應能減弱。

惠譽認為,隨著競爭環境趨穩,美團強勁的市場地位和營運能力應能支撐其財務復甦。管理層指引顯示,儘管存在高額補貼,2026年第一季度外賣業務虧損收窄速度快於2025年第四季度,表明即使補貼強度僅小幅緩和,也能顯著改善盈利能力。惠譽認為,美團在核心正餐外賣業務中保持韌性,並維持了相較於主要競爭對手的效率優勢。

惠譽認為,美團的到店、酒店及旅遊(到店酒旅)板塊利潤率將收窄,但長期仍將保持健康,這反映出來自抖音的競爭加劇。自2025年第三季度以來,該板塊盈利能力有所走弱,不過該趨勢總體上與惠譽預期一致。此外,這亦拖累了美團收益恢復的速度,不過管理層表示,2026年第一季度利潤率已企穩。

新業務虧損方面,惠譽預期,美團新業務板塊的虧損將自2025年的110億元人民幣收窄至2026年的90億元人民幣,因為與Keeta於2025年開拓新國家相關的虧損主要是前置且一次性虧損。Keeta是美團的海外外賣平台,於2025年下半年擴展至卡塔爾、科威特、阿聯酋和巴西。管理層表示,2024年9月啟動的Keeta沙地阿拉伯業務預計將在2026年首次實現單月盈利。

另惠譽認為,美團的淨現金頭寸(2025年估計為260億元人民幣),將在一定程度上提供緩衝以吸收暫時性虧損並維持促銷活動投資。然而,若其現金餘額快速縮減或失去淨現金頭寸,會削弱其應對未來競爭壓力的財務靈活性,並對評級構成下行壓力。(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-10 16:25.)

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