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<Research>Jefferies: CN Banks to See Steady Improvement This Yr; BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK), BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) Favored
Recommend
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Positive
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Negative
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Jefferies issued a research report expecting Chinese banking sector to deliver steady earnings improvement in 2026 amid a mild macro recovery and low policy swings. The broker forecast that the narrowing of NIM will slacken, which supports a return to growth in NII. It expected PPOP of the covered banks to fully recover in 2026, with earnings hiking approximately 3.4% YoY.

Capital flows will continue to support the Chinese banking sector, the report said. In particular, under new accounting standards, insurance companies have stronger incentives to increase allocation to high-yield equities and classify them into FVOCI accounts, and are expected to become persistent and stable marginal buyers.

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The broker believed the sector offers selective attractiveness, favoring stocks with sustained capital flows and improving earnings visibility. Its H-share and A-share top picks are BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ), both being rated Buy.

Jefferies listed ratings and TPs for Chinese banks:

Company and Stock Code | Rating | TP
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ICBC (01398.HK) | Buy | HKD8.5
ICBC (601398.SH) | Buy | RMB8.7
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ABC (01288.HK) | Hold | HKD6.6
AGRICULTURAL BANK (601288.SH) | Hold | RMB7.4
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BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK) | Buy | HKD6.3
BANK OF CHINA (601988.SH) | Buy | RMB7.4
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CCB (00939.HK) | Buy | HKD10.6
CCB (601939.SH) | Buy | RMB11.9
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BANKCOMM (03328.HK) | Buy | HKD8.5
BANKCOMM (601328.SH) | Buy | RMB8.5
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PSBC (01658.HK) | Hold | HKD5.1
PSBC (601658.SH) | Hold | RMB5.3
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CM BANK (03968.HK) | Buy | HKD55.0
CMB (600036.SH) | Buy | RMB51.0
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MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) | Hold | HKD4.1
MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH) | Hold | RMB4.2
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PING AN BANK (000001.SZ) | Buy | RMB13.8
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BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ) | Buy | RMB42.1

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