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<Research>G Sachs: Future Lithium Cycle to Be Demand-led; Lithium Carbonate Prices Likely to Peak Out in 1H26
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Goldman Sachs said in a research report that the lack of greenfield investment projects in the near term suggests limited long-term supply elasticity for lithium. As such, the trajectory of the future lithium cycle will primarily depend on demand strength. For the lithium market to sustain an upcycle in 2026-27, both energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicles must record substantial growth. Under a base-case scenario, Goldman Sachs expects benchmark lithium carbonate prices to peak out in 1H26 at RMB164,000 per ton (around USD21,000) and to further drop to USD10,100-16,000 per ton of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2H26 through 2028. Goldman Sachs has lifted its target price for GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK) from HKD35 to HKD60 and for TIANQI LITHIUM (09696.HK) from HKD26 to HKD48. Both have received a Sell rating. Auto-translated by AI AASTOCKS Financial News |
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