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<Research>M Stanley Expects Strong Mkt-Related Income to Offset QoQ Pressure on HK Banks' 1Q NII
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Hong Kong banks are set to announce their 1Q26 results from late April to May 5, according to a report from Morgan Stanley.

It is expected that strong wealth management and market-related income should offset the QoQ decline in net interest income (NII), and asset quality will be in the investor spotlight, as the macro environment remains uncertain. Morgan Stanley prefers international banks.

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The report also highlighted a key feature that will occur in Hong Kong banks' 1Q26 results, namely QoQ pressure on NII because of a QoQ drop of 66 bps in the HIBOR, though it should be offset by solid wealth management, market income, and cost control.

Asset quality will remain in focus, including early credit provisioning by HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) and STANCHART (02888.HK), BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)'s exposure to Hong Kong commercial real estate, and management commentary on geopolitical impacts.

Morgan Stanley has kept an Overweight rating on HSBC HOLDINGS and STANCHART and an Underweight rating on BOC HONG KONG.

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