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<Research>G Sachs: HK Residential Recovery Remains Solid Amid Macro Uncertainty; 12% Home Price Growth Forecast Kept for 2026
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Despite macro uncertainty, the recovery momentum of Hong Kong's residential market remained solid, according to Goldman Sachs' research report. The Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) has gained a total of 6.6% YTD, while total trading volume in March still rose 17% YoY to 6,000. By developers, SHK PPT (00016.HK) outperformed the sector in 1Q26, recording approx. $13 billion contracted sales and achieving a market share of 25%, while the market shares of HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) and NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) were 9% and 6% respectively. The broker maintained its forecast of a 12% YoY increase in home prices for 2026. In the office segment, the pace of recovery has been faster than the broker's forecast, supported by a rebound in the IPO market. Although net absorption temporarily declined, average monthly rents in March still inched up 0.1% MoM, bringing the YTD total incline to 1.5%. Leasing demand remained concentrated in core districts such as Central and Tsim Sha Tsui, accounting for around 50% of overall transaction. Goldman Sachs previously forecasted that overall office rents/ Central office rents would remain flat/ rise 3% YoY each this year. If Asia can serve as a safe haven and attract investment, there will be upside risk, and it is expected that Hongkong Land and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) will be the key beneficiaries. Auto-translated by AI AASTOCKS Financial News |
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