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<Research>Deutsche Bank Reiterates POP MART Sell Rating, Expects Sales to Hit Snags
Recommend 13 Positive 15 Negative 15 |
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Harnessing data to track POP MART (09992.HK)'s online sales in China (Tmall/Taobao, Douyin), sales in March this year charted YoY surge of 106% and an MoM increase of 5%, Deutsche Bank said in a report. However, comparing February and March sales with the average level in 2H25, there is a slide of about 20%, implying that sales may hit snags when the base becomes higher starting from 2Q26. In 1Q26, POP MART's e-commerce growth is expected to rally 86% YoY, in line with the 85% YoY growth observed in 4Q25. POP MART is scheduled to announce its 1Q26 operational update in May. Based on recent discussions with investors, the market expects omni-channel revenue in China to grow 80-100% YoY. For overseas sales, a persistent QoQ decline compared with 4Q25 is anticipated, although the exact magnitude remains unclear. Under Deutsche Bank's base case, overseas markets are expected to maintain YoY growth of 100%, equivalent to a QoQ drop of 10%. A steeper QoQ slump than this base case would pose downside risks to full-year forecasts. The broker reiterated its Sell rating and TP of HKD157 on POP MART, as it believed the growth slowdown in 4Q25 has already raised concerns over the 2026 outlook. Auto-translated by AI AASTOCKS Financial News |
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