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<Research>M Stanley Projects AI Investment to Weigh on TENCENT Margins, TP HKD650
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Morgan Stanley issued a research report forecasting that TENCENT (00700.HK) will deliver revenue and non-IFRS operating profit growth of 9.8% and 7.1% YoY, respectively, in 1Q26. Normalized gaming growth was estimated to slacken from a high base, offsetting faster marketing and FBS growth, while AI investment began to heap pressure on margins.

Morgan Stanley forecast TENCENT's non-IFRS operating profit to gain 7.1% YoY, lagging revenue growth and reflecting elevated AI investment, in line with guidance to more than double AI opex in 2026. Operating profit growth for 2026 was expected to be flat to low single digits.

Related NewsHSBC Research Initiates Coverage on Zhipu (02513.HK) and MiniMax (00100.HK) with Hold; Sees Further Revenue Upside for TENCENT (00700.HK) and ALIBABA (09988.HK)
The broker lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 0.6-0.8% and trimmed its non-IFRS operating profit forecasts by 0.3-0.5%. It reiterated an Overweight rating on TENCENT with an unchanged TP of HKD650.

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