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<Research>CMS: LAOPU GOLD's Positive Profit Alert In Line; Underweight Rating Kept
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China Merchants Securities (CMS) released a report on LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK), which had issued a positive profit alert for FY25, in line. LAOPU GOLD's guidance for FY25 revenue is between RMB27 billion and RMB28 billion, representing a YoY spike of 217-229%, with net profit ranging between RMB4.8 billion and RMB4.9 billion, marking a YoY surge of 226-233%.

The non-IFRS adjusted net profit was expected to be between RMB5 billion and RMB5.1 billion. The broker attributed this brisk growth to brand expansion, sustained channel growth momentum, and the opening of 10 new stores, all of which have been fully communicated with the market since the release of the 1H25 results.

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Since first coverage in January, the broker has maintained an Underweight rating on LAOPU GOLD. The broker observed diminishing returns from arbitraging the "gold price lag" to stimulate pull-forward demand. Moreover, the strategic soft cap of approximately 40% gross margin set a high threshold for balancing sales growth and profitability. Before the full earnings report is released, the target price is currently under review.
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