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<Research>JPM Expects Continual Weakness in CN Property Developers in 2025 Results, Prefers CHINA RES LAND & CHINA JINMAO
Recommend 9 Positive 14 Negative 9 |
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Chinese property developers and property managers will announce their results in March, JPMorgan pointed out in its research report. The broker expected the profits of the developers under its coverage to sink 29% YoY, with a continual margin squeeze. It also believed that the divergence in earnings growth among property managers will continue, with SOEs expected to rise by 9%, and POEs expected to fall by 21%. Given the deterioration of the real estate market in 2H25, sluggish performance from developers is unlikely a surprise. For the entire industry, the broker considered policy and sales/price trends to remain important drivers, and the "Two Sessions" in March and the Politburo meeting in April may provide opportunities for new policies. Among property developers, JPMorgan's top picks are CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK) and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK). For property managers, it favored CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK) and GREENTOWN SER (02869.HK), but remained cautious on CHINA VANKE (02202.HK). JPMorgan expected more companies to report net losses in their March results, including LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK). Even for large SOEs like CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) and CHINA RES LAND, the broker forecast core net profit to subtract by 19% YoY. It predicted that the DPS of SOEs will drop by 27% YoY, while most companies will maintain similar dividend payout ratio. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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