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<Research>G Sachs Reiterates Buy on GUMING, MIXUE GROUP; Same-Store Sales Expected to Drop Next Yr
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According to Goldman Sachs' research report, an expert meeting on China's fresh beverage market was held yesterday (16th). The attending expert is a franchisee operating multiple milk tea shops in Zhejiang and Shanghai, including brands like Chagee (CHA.US) and CHABAIDAO (02555.HK).

Key conclusions drawn in the meeting included the expert's expectation that subsidies will phase out in the medium to long term and that niche brands with strong growth momentum could achieve profitability within 6-8 months.

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Goldman Sachs' internet team forecasts that losses related to food delivery for BABA-W (09988.HK) and MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) will narrow by the quarter ending December and in 2026. Considering the reduction in subsidies, same-store sales for GUMING (01364.HK) and MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK) are also projected to slip by 6% and 4% respectively in 2026, while expansion into untapped markets will lead to net openings of 3,400 and 9,000 new stores for the two groups respectively.

Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating on both GUMING and MIXUE GROUP, with a 12-month target price of HKD32 for the former and HKD579 for the latter.
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