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<Research>Nomura: MSCI China Index Potentially Gains 10% Next Yr; Focus on '3 Pillar' Strategy Urged
Recommend 18 Positive 34 Negative 7 |
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Nomura released a research report maintaining a constructive view until early 2026 from a top-down approach, and expecting the MSCI Asia ex Japan Index (MXASJ) to reach 1,035 in 2026, benefiting from solid earnings growth. However, the broker added that 2026 could become a critical turning point, as investors will seek more evidence to prove that AI investments can lead to substantial productivity enhancements and investment return improvements. Nomura reiterated its base case scenario target for the MSCI China Index in 2026 at 93 (+10% return), with robust earnings growth implying that the index still has upside throughout the year. For the outlook for the MSCI China Index, Nomura stayed overweigh, based on several factors including that valuations are within a reasonable range, with stronger earnings growth expectations for 2026 on a lower base, etc.. At the strategic level, the broker proposed three pillars, including sectors with robust fundamentals supported by structural themes. Representative stocks include TENCENT (00700.HK), BABA-W (09988.HK), NTES-S (09999.HK), CATL (300750.SZ), BYD COMPANY (01211.HK), LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK), ORBBEC (688322.SH), WUXI APPTEC (02359.HK), SYTECH (600183.SH), VICTORY GIANT TECHNOLOGY (300476.SZ) and Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME.US). The second pillar is the relative value-based cyclical sectors that have lagged behind, focusing on select consumer goods, e-commerce and home appliance sectors, as well as high-quality banks and insurers. Representative stocks include JD-SW (09618.HK), Yum China Holdings (YUMC.US), ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK), MIDEA GP (000333.SZ), CM BANK (03968.HK) and PING AN (02318.HK). The third pillar is companies with net cash/ strong balance sheets, including BABA-W, CATL, MIDEA GP, NetEase, CM BANK, PING AN, ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK), JD-SW (09618.HK) and Yum China. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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