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<Research>BOCOMI Sees Signs of Stabilization in CN Property Mkt, Expects HK Home Prices to Grow 3% in 2H25
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China's real estate sector is showing signs of stopping decline and moving towards stabilization, BOCOMI has released a report indicating. In 1-4M25, China's sales of newly built commercial housing reached RMB2.7035 trillion, with the YoY decline narrowing to 3.2%. Although there were still pockets of supply-demand imbalance, the residential market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with full-year new home sales projected at RMB8-8.5 trillion. The report also mentioned that Hong Kong's real estate market is facing macro uncertainties in 2025, but key positive factors are emerging. Population growth and a sharp drop in HIBOR are anticipated to stabilize the residential market. The broker estimated that home prices would rise by 3%/ 5%/ 5% in 2H25/ 2026/ 2027. BOCOMI's preferred order for the Hong Kong real estate sector was retail REITs > low-leverage residential developers > retail property owners > REITs and developers with a high proportion of office business. LINK REIT (00823.HK) was the broker's top pick. AAStocks Financial News |
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