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As US-CN Trade War Escalates, Fitch Cuts CN 2025 GDP Growth Forecast to 3.9% within a Mth
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Fitch Ratings’ latest report warned that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will heighten challenges for China’s economic policies, including efforts to combat deflationary pressures and manage financial leverage, potentially impacting issuers’ credit ratings.

The agency highlighted that domestic demand is likely to become a critical driver of China’s growth again, with intensifying deflationary pressures. This reinforces Fitch’s view that sustained fiscal stimulus will be deployed to support growth, straining public finances - a key factor behind its downgrade of China’s sovereign credit rating to A/ Stable in early April.

Related NewsRetail Sales YoY for March in China is 5.9%, higher than the previous value of 4.0%. The forecast was 4.2%.
Citing recent tariff hikes, Fitch lowered its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.4% to 3.9%, marking the second downward adjustment in less than a month since April 3. The forecast in 2026 was also chopped from 4% to 3.8%.
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