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<Research>HSBC Global Research Foresees MEITUAN-W Food Delivery to Take Longer Time to Recover, Cuts TP to $114
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HSBC Global Research’s report expected MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)'s food delivery losses to peak in 3Q25 and narrow sharply in 4Q25. In the medium run, Meituan maintains higher operational efficiency than its competitors, allowing it to control losses. However, given the higher-than-expected overall market investment intensity, the broker expected losses in this segment to escalate in the short term.

The broker also anticipated a prolonged period of competition, as major rival BABA-W (09988.HK) focuses on rebuilding its quick commerce market share and scale over the long run. This will make it take longer for Meituan's food delivery to return to profit.

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HSBC Global Research lowered its forecast for Meituan's food delivery GTV margin by 0.3-0.9 ppts from 2025 to 2027 and trimmed its target price from $125 to $114, with a Buy rating.
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