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Ping An Securities Sees Misalignment of CN Spring Festival as Key Reason for Negative CPI in Feb; Overall Low Price Trend Persists
Ping An Securities has issued a report indicating that the misalignment of the Spring Festival was the key reason for China to record a negative CPI in February. As recently announ...
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Ping An Securities Sees Misalignment of CN Spring Festival as Key Reason for Negative CPI in Feb; Overall Low Price Trend Persists
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Ping An Securities has issued a report indicating that the misalignment of the Spring Festival was the key reason for China to record a negative CPI in February. As recently announced by Chinese authorities, China's February CPI and PPI slipped by 0.7% and 2.2% YoY respectively.

The tail-end factor (namely the lagging impact of last year's price changes) of China's February CPI was negative 1.2%, while the new price increase factor was 0.5%. The impact of the Spring Festival misalignment was concentrated in vehicle use and maintenance, food, tourism, and postal and household services, all of which typically showed significant price increases during the Spring Festival month and notable declines in the following month.

In addition, it is worth noting that compared to years when the Spring Festival fell in January, the food price spikes in January and February this year were generally weaker than seasonal trends as favorable weather in 2M25 benefited the growth and transportation of fresh vegetables. Meanwhile, tourism this year demonstrated a characteristic of larger increases during the Spring Festival month and smaller decreases in the following month, which pertained to the cross-month nature of this year's Spring Festival holiday and reflected an uptrend in tourism prices.

Other sub-items dramatically influenced by the Spring Festival factors showed matching rises and falls in the Spring Festival month and the following month, while sub-items less affected by the Spring Festival factors reflected no special changes in February, with the overall trend continuing to be low prices.
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