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State Street Investment Management: Gold Price May Surpass US$4,000 in 4Q or by Early 2026
State Street Investment Management released its monthly gold monitor report expecting a 75% probability that the gold market will breach US$4,000 in 4Q25 or by early 2026. 2025 is ...
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State Street Investment Management: Gold Price May Surpass US$4,000 in 4Q or by Early 2026
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State Street Investment Management released its monthly gold monitor report expecting a 75% probability that the gold market will breach US$4,000 in 4Q25 or by early 2026. 2025 is shaping up to be the strongest year for gold returns since 1979.

Currently, US$3,500 per ounce appears to be a new support area. While a 7-8% sell-off seems plausible in 4Q25, especially given gold ETF historical seasonals in November and December, State Street Investment Management thought such a dip would ultimately be bought.

As the USD records its steepest annual decline since 1970, gold is benefitting from denomination effects, State Street Investment Management added. The resumption of the Fed cutting cycle amid a lingering domestic inflation and fiscal impulse may also prompt further bull steepening of the US Treasury curve, which can support gold prices and weigh on the USD.
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